Card distribution in the shoe
Number of decks:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Card:
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
X
A
Total
Number:
Distribution:
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
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Interpret the strategy tables
For each non-fundamental decision a player can do an interactive strategy table is computed on this site. By default a shoe with 6 decks is assumed. This is also known as the "Basic Blackjack strategy". With changing distribution of cards in the shoe, the best strategy varies a little. The distribution in the shoe may be changed interactively by entering the remaining number of cards of each value or by decreasing them clicking onto the card button (A, 2, ..., 9 or X).
The percentual distribution is computed automatically and can't be set. You may also specify the number of decks (1..9) used to compute the following tables.
A total of eight tables is computed, some show probabilities and some show expectations. If an expectation is below zero it means
Don't do it!
and
the table background is red
. The lower this value is, the more you are encouraged not to do this action. If an expectation is above zero it means
Do it!
and
the table background is green
. The higher this value is, the more you are encouraged to do this action.
The meaning of the expectation values is:
If you were to buy on 16 against the dealers 7, you would lose 6 additional bets in each one hundred games.
If you were to double down on 11 against the dealers 6, you would gain 33 additional bets in each one hundred games.
If you were to split 9-9 against the dealers Ace, you would lose 33 additional bets in each one hundred games.
These values are computed on base of 6 full desks and will vary depending on which cards are gone.
Probabilities are always between 0% and 100% and not colored. Probabilities are more of theoretical interest but will help understanding the best strategy.
Expectations for buy
This table shows the expectations when the player has to decide whether to buy or to stay. Note that the player should always buy with a hard-hand of 11 and lower or a soft-hand of 7/17 and lower. He should never buy with a hard-hand of 17 and higher or a soft-hand of 9/19 and higher.
Expectations for buy are named E(7/17) and E(8/18) for softhands, and E(12), E(13) throught E(16) for hardhands.
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Expectations for doubling
This table shows the expectations when the player has to decide whether to double the stake or to continue as usual. If he doubles he will be dealt only one more card. If he continues as usual he should play according to the strategy described in the table
Expectations for buy
.
Expectations for double are named E(9), E(10) and E(11).
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Expectations for splitting
This table shows the expectations when the player has to decide whether to split or to continue as usual. If he splits he must place another stake for the second bet. After splitting each bet should be played according to the strategy described in the tables
Expectations for buy
and
Expectations for double
. Please note that some casinos do not allow to double after splitting.
Expectations for splitting are named E(A-A), E(2-2) through E(X-X).
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Expectations for splitting (partner)
This table shows the expectations when two players play together. One of the disadvantages when You split is that You have to do another bet of the same amount. Sometimes splitting certain combinations would increase the probability of achieving a higher final score. However as the stake must be doubled, often is not worthwhile to split.
But other players placing bets on Your box must not double their bets after the placeholder splits. A partner player could therefore place high stakes whereas the placeholder would place low ones on his box. In some situations where it is advantageous to split, the partner can divide his bet. Only the placeholder must bring in another stake according to the rules.
In these situation the expectations for splitting cards looks quite different because only a small amount of the stake must be doubled.
This table is of rare interest as it can only be applied if two or more players attempt to beat the dealer as a team.
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Expectation for insurance
Another decision the player can do is to take out insurance against a Blackjack in case the dealers first hand is an Ace. This is very rarely of interest and should normally not be considered.
Expectation for insurance is named E(insurance).
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Total expectations
The total expectation is the magic number in beating the dealer. Depending on this value the player must bet high or low. If the total expectation is below zero he must place minimum stakes or skip playing. If it is above zero he should place high stakes as the theory says that in these few situations the player has a moderate advantage over the dealer.
This table shows the expectations for each Dealers First Hand and the Total Expectation. The last one is the number to watch.
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Probabilities of Dealers Last Hand
This table shows the probabilities of the dealers last hand under the condition of his first hand. Note how high the probability is that the dealer will bust is if his first hand is a low one. During the game we can see the dealers first hand before we have to do our decisions. So we will buy carefully when the dealers first hand is 2-6, and we will buy more courageous when the dealers first hand is 7-ACE.
This table is only of theoretical interest and does not influence the players strategy directly.
The probability for the dealers first hand is names p(DFH). The probablities for the dealers last hand are named p(bust) [= the probability the dealers will bust], p(BJ) [= the probability the dealer will achieve a Blackjack] and p(17) through p(21) [= the probabilty for the dealers final sum].
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Probabilities of Players Last Hand
This table shows the probabilities of the player last hand under the condition of the dealers first hand and under the condition that the player played according to the strategy. This table is only of theoretical interest.
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